Revenue projections: conservative vs base vs optimistic

Every Full Analysis shows three revenue scenarios. Understanding what each represents — and how to use them together — is key to making a sound investment decision.

The three scenarios

Scenario	What it represents
Conservative	Lower occupancy and ADR. Assumes higher competition, weaker execution, or an off-peak first year. This is your floor.
Base	The most likely outcome based on real comp data. This is the primary scenario that feeds all downstream calculations (cap rate, DSCR, CoC).
Optimistic	Upper-bound estimate. Assumes strong listing quality, active pricing management, and favorable market conditions.

Each column shows: gross revenue, NOI, cash-on-cash return, and occupancy for that scenario.

How to read the spread

The spread between conservative and optimistic tells you the deal's risk profile.

Tight spread (e.g., $65K–$85K): Predictable market with low variance. Lower risk.
Wide spread (e.g., $40K–$90K): Outcome is highly sensitive to management quality and market timing. Higher risk.

How to use the scenarios when evaluating a deal

Use conservative as your underwriting floor. If the conservative scenario still clears your target CoC return and your DSCR qualifies for financing, you have a margin of safety. The deal works even if things don't go perfectly.

Use optimistic as a sanity check. If achieving the optimistic outcome requires highly favorable assumptions, be explicit about what you'd need to execute on to get there.

Never underwrite to optimistic. If the deal only pencils at the optimistic revenue figure, negotiate harder on price or walk away.

Where to find the scenarios

In your Full Analysis report, the three-column revenue range appears directly below the Investment Summary card. Each column is clickable — selecting a scenario updates the key metrics to reflect that revenue assumption.

You can also stress-test custom revenue inputs using the Revenue Playground in the Financial Model tab.